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Effect of real exchange rate to productivity and trade of Kenyan tea industry
Mwangi, Speranza Njeri
The aim of this thesis was to understand the relationship between real exchange rates and tea productivity in Kenya. The study was anchored by the Keynesian model of open economies, the Gravity model, the Porters Competitive Model, the Solow Growth Model and the Heckscher-Ohlin model. The study focused on the period 1993 -2022. The study used time series data. The overall objective of the thesis was done through the evaluation of two specific objectives. The first specific objective was to determine the effect of the real exchange rate on the productivity of tea in Kenya. The independent variables included real effective exchange rate, precipitation, and degree of openness. It was found that the real effective exchange rate and the precipitation had a positive and statistically significant effect on productivity. The degree of openness was found to have a negative and statistically insignificant effect on productivity. The second objective of the study was to determine the effect of the exchange rate on the of Kenyan tea. The study established that the real effective exchange rate had a positive but statistically insignificant effect on the trade in Kenyan tea. The study established that the trade of competitor’s tea had a positive and statistically significant effect on trade in Kenyan tea. The study also established that relative prices had a negative and statistically significant effect on the trade in Kenyan tea. Based on the findings, it was recommended that the government of Kenya work to maintain the shilling at levels that stimulate productivity and enact measures to increase the quality and branding of Kenya tea to increase the international competitiveness of Kenyan tea.
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The Relationship Between Bank Capital And Bank Earnings In Ghana
Sackey, Jeffery Nii Otokunor
ABSTRACT Jeffery Nii Otokunor Sackey.The relationship between bank capital and bank earnings in Ghana. Diploma thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2018. This diploma thesis explores the relationship between bank capital and their endings in Ghana. It provides a general overview of the factors that influence the profitability of commercial banks listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange. Data for the study will be sourced from secondary sources. Whereas Stata and Gretl are used for the analysis and other macroeconomic factors such as the real exchange rate will be used for the thesis. Keywords: Stock Exchange, Macroeconomics Factor, Bank Earnings, Exchange rate Commercial banks.
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Determinants of inflation in Ghana
Yao Ani-Frimpong, Selorm
The crux of this master thesis was to analyze if the inflationary trend in Ghana is a monetary phenomenon. Over the decades, numerous studies done on inflation in Ghana tend to converge on the postulation that money supply does exert some influence on inflationary trend. The argument has always been if money supply has a significant or less than significant impact on inflationary trend. Those for the argument that, the money supply has a less than significant influence buttress their points with how other factors such as fiscal policies, exchange rate, input cost, cost of imports affect inflation in the Ghanaian economy. Certainly these factors plus a host of others, based on investigations, were revealed to significantly influence inflation. In some studies, the influence of monetary factors was shown to have significantly eroded based on the time period used in the investigations respectively. This thesis thus set out to investigate both divides of the argument, whether inflation is still significantly affected by monetary factors or other factors are gradually casting their shadows over inflation. The other factors considered aside the monetary ones (broad money growth, monetary policy rate) for the thesis are exchange rate, GDP growth rate and crude oil price.
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Determinants of foreign direct investment in Ghana
Owusu, Maxwell Nuamah
The flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as an important source for achieving greater and faster economic growth, particularly in the emerging market economies and other developing countries. This study will examine the factors that induce foreign investors to operate in Ghana. This will take into consideration the significant influence between the dependent variable (FDI) and the observed explanatory variables ((GDPgrowth, inflation, exchange rate, trade openness and natural resources from 1975 – 2016) and (government stability and corruption from 1984 – 2016)). The study uses ordinary least square (OLS) and ARDL regression model to examine the influence between FDI and the proposed explanatory variables that are anticipated to determine FDI inflows into Ghana. The unit root test shows that only GDP and inflation were stationary at the ordinary level while other variables were stationary when we combined the variables as one. In order to solve the problem of spuriousness and the consequent of the determinant of FDI, FDI was used as a dependent variable over other variables considered. The result of the OLS regression model show that GDP growth, exchange rate, natural resources and government stability have positive influence on FDI while inflation, trade openness and corruption have negative influence on FDI but only exchange rate and natural resources said to be statistically significant. Result of ARDL was divided into two part. Variables that ranges from 1975 – 2016 were used as an explanatory variable for the first part while all the variables including government stability and corruption were used as second part. The result for ARDL regression model shows that all the variables from 1975 – 2016 are statistically significant while the second part shows that only inflation, exchange rate, trade openness and government stability are statistically significant. The uniqueness of this research after using ARDL regression model and OLS regression model is that the two models show that there is statistical significant influence between FDI and the independent variables (GDP, natural resources, trade openness, inflation, exchange rate, government stability and corruption).
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The impact of macroeconomic news announcements on the value and volatility of selected foreign exchange rates in EU
Bubniak, Peter ; Fanta, Nicolas (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
Bibliographic note BUBNIAK, Peter. The impact of macroeconomic news announcements on the value and volatility of selected foreign exchange rates in EU. Prague 2019. 47 pp. Bachelor thesis (Bc) Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies. Thesis supervisor: Mgr Nicolas Fanta. Abstract This work analyzes the influence of positive and negative macroeconomic news on the value of exchange rate and volatility. We have chosen EUR/USD, EUR/CZK and USD/CZK as our exchange rates. The influence of macroeconomic news published by Czech national bank and European central bank were analysed. For our purposes were used econometric models GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) with both Normal and Student's distribution of error terms. One of the major outcomes were the importance of macroeconomic news on value and volatility on the exhcange rates. For each exchange rate has effect different macroeconomic index. The crucial are: Consumer price index and Harmonised Index of Consumer Pirces, unemplyoment rate and PRIBOR and EURIBOR. Another conclusion was that our financial dataset displays the main nature of volatility. JEL Classification C22, E00, E52, E58, F3, F4, F31, G1, G13, G14 Key words financial market, exchange rate, ARCH model, GARCH model, volatility Authors e-mail bubniak.peter@gmail.com...
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Transaction currency of Czech companies in international and domestic trade
KOUBOVÁ, Simona
The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the impact of the use of foreign currencies, the euro by Czech companies on the accounting and analysis of the use of the euro in transactions. The first sub-objective is to determine the number of customers of the selected group who trade in the euro and the division of enterprises by size according to specified criteria. The second sub-objective is to determine the effect of the euro in the case of exchange rate differences and to be reflected in the financial statements. The work will evaluate the status and development of customers who use the euro as the transaction currency. The impact of the euro on society and the division of enterprises according to different criteria will be described. Part will be devoted to exchange rate differences. The last part of the thesis will deal with the impact of the euro on the financial statements
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What is the equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna?
Jančovič, Pavel ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to estimate bilateral equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna relative to Euro and to determine if the Czech currency is undervalued or overvalued relative to the market equilibrium. We employ fundamental (FEER) and behavioral (BEER) equilibrium exchange rate models, which enables to measure the currency position relative to the market rate. To tackle the uncertainty of the implied equilibrium exchange rates that differ among alternative specifications of the models, we aggregate the estimates via principal components analysis. The perception on the market is that Czech koruna is undervalued, since the intervention regime imposed by the Czech National Bank in the 2013, was defending the exchange rate floor of 27 Czech korunas to Euro. Then, we extend conventional specifications of BEER models for variables representing exchange rate interventions and forward rates offered on the market because both can have protracted effects not only on spot rates but on adjustment towards long-term equilibrium as well. The original models with fundamental factors show equilibrium exchange rate near to 25 CZK/EUR. However, extended models with interventions show higher equilibrium exchange rate, near to 27 CZK/EUR. Thus, there is possibility of slow adjustment near to the...
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Exchange rate volatility, and central bank interventions
Kubů, Jan ; Lachout, Petr (advisor) ; Branda, Martin (referee)
The exchange rates of currencies of different countries show higher volatility than it could be explained by the volatility of the fundamental variables. There are introduced different models which try to describe the behavior of these exchange rates in this Diploma Thesis. Their comparison is made with respect to the ability to capture the volatility of the empirically observed data. The behavior of exchange rates may also be influenced by interventions of the state institutions and therefore we introduced models which allow the effect of such regulatory interventions. These models were applied on real data. The properties of the model predictions of exchange rates were compared and evaluated with respect to their ability to explain the volatility of the empirical data. At the summary of my work one of the models has been used to simulate the behavior of the exchange rate during the application of different intervention strategies of the Central Bank. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment in the Czech Republic
Kalinová, Sandra ; Procházka, Petr (advisor) ; Václav , Václav (referee)
The main objective of this diploma thesis is to provide a comprehensive overview of the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the Czech Republic from the perspective of its determinants.
The first part presents the general definitions of FDI and its possible positive and negative impacts on the host country. Furthermore, the thesis deals with the determinants defining the attractiveness of the country for foreign investors. The following part contains a brief description of global investment trends and the transformation of the Czech economy. Based on the theoretical background, the second part of the thesis is built up.
The second part focuses on analysis of FDI inflows in the Czech Republic based on the country of origin of the investor and the sector. Furthermore, the thesis deals with key attractiveness factors influencing Czech foreign direct investment and the development of selected macroeconomic indicators. Moreover, the econometric model examines which factors affect FDI inflows into the country. In the final conclusion, the results of the diploma thesis are presented.
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Forecasting the Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic Using Non-linear Threshold Models
Žák, Petr ; Stráský, Josef (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to analyze the performance of nonlinear threshold models in forecasting the exchange rate of Czech koruna against EUR. Data for this study were obtained from Statistical Data Warehouse of European Central Bank (ECB) website, from Czech National Bank (CNB) Board decisions minutes and from the press releases of Governing Council of ECB. The data set was split into two periods - from 1999 until November, 2013 when CNB started to use interventions and from November, 2013 until April, 2016. Models used in the thesis are Self-Exciting Threshold Auto Regressive (SETAR) models with one and two thresholds and two Threshold Auto Regres- sive (TAR) models with different threshold variables - meetings of CNB Board as dummy variable and average volatility over recent periods. The forecasting results indicate that SETAR models did not outperform Random Walk in any period. TAR models offered promising results in the period before interventions and surprisingly failed in the period during interventions. This study supports the general belief of exchange rates being difficult to forecast and that it holds in case of Czech koruna as well. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23 H25, H71, H87 Keywords forecasting, exchange rate, time series, nonlin- earity, SETAR, TAR Author's e-mail zaka.one@gmail.com...
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